'Sinners' Courtesy of Warner Bros. Share on Facebook Share on X Share to Flipboard Send an Email Show additional share options Share on Reddit Post a Comment Share on Whats App Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Print the Article Share on Tumblr A NOTE FROM SCOTT Labor Day weekend is upon us, which means that the race to the 98th Oscars on Sunday, March 15, 2026, is truly, if unofficially, on. A host of highly-anticipated contenders will be unveiled over the next few days on the Lido and/or in the Rockies - among them Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Jay Kelly, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Bugonia, La Grazia and A House of Dynamite - with not just film makers and lovers, but also awards voters and journalists, on hand in large numbers. As I personally see - or am released to acknowledge that I have seen - those contenders, I will relocate them from "Still to See/Under Embargo" groupings into "Frontrunners," "Major Threats" or "Possibilities" - or, in cases where things really go badly, delete them altogether. Only one thing is certain: next week's forecast is going to look very different than this week's. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy this snapshot of a moment in time. Please remember: my forecasts do not necessarily reflect my personal preferences. My aim is not to advocate for what I think the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. I arrive at my projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats. Best Picture Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon FrontrunnersSinners (Warner Bros.)Sentimental Value (Neon)Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)Train Dreams (Netflix)It Was Just An Accident (Neon)F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)Materialists (A24)Weapons (Warner Bros.)Warfare (A24)The Life of Chuck (Neon) Major ThreatsDie My Love (Mubi)The Secret Agent (Neon)Highest 2 Lowest (A24) PossibilitiesKiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)The History of Sound (Mubi)Sound of Falling (Mubi) Still to See/Under EmbargoAfter the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix)Bugonia (Focus)Caught Stealing (Sony)Dead Man's Wire (still seeking U.S. distribution)Ella McCay (20th Century)Eternity (A24)Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution)Frankenstein (Netflix)Hamnet (Focus)Hedda (Amazon/MGM)A House of Dynamite (Netflix)Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)Jay Kelly (Netflix)La Grazia (Mubi)The Lost Bus (Apple)Marty Supreme (A24)The Mastermind (Mubi)Mother Mary (A24)No Other Choice (Neon)Nuremberg (Sony Classics)One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)Rental Family (Searchlight)Roofman (Paramount)The Smashing Machine (A24)Song Sung Blue (Universal)Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)The Testament of Ann Lee (still seeking U.S. distribution)Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)Wicked: For Good (Universal) Best Director Image Credit: Jean Louis Fernandez FrontrunnersRyan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) - podcastJafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident (Neon)Clint Bentley for Train Dreams (Netflix Major ThreatsCeline Song for Materialists (A24) - podcastLynne Ramsay for Die My Love (Mubi)Joseph Kosinski for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)Zach Cregger for Weapons (Warner Bros.)Alex Garland & Ray Mendoza for Warfare (A24)Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon) PossibilitiesSpike Lee for Highest 2 Lowest (A24) - podcastEva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)Mike Flanagan for The Life of Chuck (Neon)Óliver Laxe for Sirāt (Neon)Bill Condon for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)Oliver Hermanus for The History of Sound (Mubi) Still to See/Under EmbargoPaul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)Darren Aronofksy for Caught Stealing (Sony)Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly (Netflix)Edward Berger for Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix)Kathryn Bigelow for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)Craig Brewer for Song Sung Blue (Universal)James L. Brooks for Ella McCay (20th Century)James Cameron for Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)Jon M. Chu for Wicked: For Good (Universal)Derek Cianfrance for Roofman (Paramount)Bradley Cooper for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)Nia DaCosta for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) - podcast 1 and 2Mona Fastvold for The Testament of Ann Lee (still seeking U.S. distribution)David Freyne for Eternity (A24)Luca Guadagnino for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)Paul Greengrass for The Lost Bus (Apple) - podcastHikari for Rental Family (Searchlight)Jim Jarmusch for Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution)Rian Johnson for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story (Netflix)Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (Focus)Oliver Laxe for Sirāt (Neon)David Lowery for Mother Mary (A24)Park Chan-wook for No Other Cho